Sunday, August 26, 2018

Taking the long view on Coal

Oil will stop being plentiful enough to burn for fuel in the next 50 to 100 years. Coal, on the other hand, has a much longer life, but its distribution and mining rate varies. If you take the long view, the country in the catbird seat right now is Russia. At their current rate of production, their reserves will last 440 years. The USA, on the other hand, has larger reserves, but are only projected to last 270 years.

Oil reserves in Russia will last to the end of oil’s dominance globally.

At current production rates, US coal reserves will equal Russian reserves in 164 years. Everyone else will be out of coal except Kazakhstan and Ukraine. China, which burns half the world’s coal, will exhaust its supply in less than 30 years.

Russia already has its eyes on taking the Ukraine and its 560 years of coal reserves. Kazakhstan is another bordering country with a Russian minority. It is about the size of India, with a total population that would fit into one of India’s major metropolitan cities, and has 288 years of coal reserves. It is rich in other minerals including oil and gas and is a sitting duck for Russian takeover. If combined with those two satellites’ reserves, Russian reserves would exceed those of the US in less than 65 years while also outlasting the States in oil reserves.

Now if Russia can figure out a way to induce the USA to start mining and burning more coal and slow down on alternate energy development, Russia’s dominance in energy will come much sooner than a century from now.

Country
Annual Production
Coal Reserves
Years Left
China
3874
114,500
30
United States
907
246,643
272
Australia
644
78,500
122
India
538
92,445
172
Indonesia
458
4,968
11
Russia
358
157,010
439
South Africa
261
48,750
187
Germany
186
6,739
36
Poland
137
14,000
102
Kazakhstan
109
31,279
288
Colombia
89
6,611
75
Turkey
71
4,186
59
Canada
69
6,578
96
Ukraine
61
34,153
561
Greece
49
3,900
79
Czech Republic
47
5,552
118


No comments: